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Regional Predictions

sportsfan503

Well-Known Member
Jan 1, 2007
114
0
16
1. Kalama over Cedar Park
2. King's over Hoquiam
3. Cascade Christian over Woodland
4. Toledo over UPrep
5. Seattle Academy over LaSalle
6. Zillah over Riverside
7. Brewster over Naches
8. Vashon over Okanogan
 
I will agree on all except the CPC match up and Vashon - OK games. The noon Wenatchee draw stinks for the Island boys and CPC's Dreschel is a very tough match up for Kalama

King's and Okanogan still my favorites at the Dome.
 
Yeah did this one before the draw. If I'd know the noon draw in Wenatchee I would've probably went with Okanogan. Vashon pick was going out on a thin limb anyway. Kalama/Cedar Park was also a toss up for me. Went with Kalama on a hunch
 
I thought the Kalama/ CPC game was the toughest call as well. I watched Drechsel last year. He's legit. I wonder a little about the the CC/ Woodland matchup. Anyone got any input on that game. CC is playing well right now.
 
CPC over Kalama: close one, but Chinooks don't t matchup with Dreschel and they seem to be struggling at the worst time
King's over Hoquiam: double digit win as Knights cruise as Grizzlies struggle to get open for 3s
Woodland over CC: CC is a good team, playing well, but you need some firepower as well and just don't see it from Cougars
Toledo over UPrep: experience and defense win this one. UPrep has size, but league is weak
Seattle Academy over La Salle: Cardinals disciplined, solid team and CPC game was aberration, but Lightning could surprise
Zillah over Riverside: Leopards, too big, too fast and too physical--maybe for anyone this year
Brewster over Naches: a close one
Okanogan over Vashon: this one intriguing. two entertaining point guards go at it and wouldn't be surprised if the Pirates pull off the upset, but don't expect it. MIserable time
 
Kalama over CPC
Hoquiam over King's
Woodland over CC
Toledo over UPrep
La Salle over Seattle Academy
Zillah over Riverside
Brewster over Naches
Vashon over Okanogan
 
...either that or ignorance is bliss. surprised he's not picking
riverside over zillah. that is more likely than hoquiam beating kings.
 
1. Cedar Park Christian over Kalama (Biased)
2. King's over Woodland (Easy pick)
4. Toledo over UPrep (lack of UPrep Quality wins)
5. Seattle Academy over LaSalle (Big physical team)
6. Zillah over Riverside (Obvious)
7. Brewster over Naches (higher quality wins)
8. Okanogan over Vashon (Upset could happen here)


My most disappointing matchup is the Vashon Okanogan, which will boot out a team that I want to see in the dome. I am also disappointed by the Kalama CPC matchup that puts two top 8 teams before Yakima. One could probably argue that Vashon and Kalama put themselves in this potential situation. We will arguably miss 2 of the top 10 1A boys in the state at the Sundome won't see 4 of the top 25 simply due to the seeding process. Happens every year I guess.
 
FDL: the fact that Vashon is the #6 seed is all on them, but I can't imagine Okanogan is too thrilled about it either. Okanogan is in no win situation. people who have seen Vashon know how good they can be, but it might be hard to get up for a #6 seed. So OK wins and everyone says, "they had an easy draw, it means nothing". But if it's close or the Pirates win, everyone else is going to wonder about how good all those other tri district teams must be if a #6 beats an undefeated. still don't get the 12pm start time for a team that has to take a ferry. wonder if they are going the night before.

agree on the CPC-Kalama game too. one quality team gets an early ticket home. Kalama has something to prove after last year and also their current rocky stretch, they have no one but themselves to blame for being D4#3.
 
FDL: Kings is playing Hoquiam, CCS is playing Woodland. You seem to have combined those two games in your #2 pick.

On some top teams not being there -- Kalama gets beat in the playoffs by a team that they beat twice in the regular season. If you are going to make it to Yakima and be the best, you need to win the games you are expected to win. They need to be counting their blessings they did not lose to Hoquiam and get Kings (they almost did).

And Vashon gets upset by Nisqually #7 team Eatonville or they win the Nisqually outright and are not in the situation they are in -- and they had two more chances (against CPC and CCS) to avoid their current fate. No one to blame but themselves....

Bottom line: like in any playoff situation, your performance dictates your fate. San Francisco fans whined about the advantage Seattle had in the NFC championship at the CLink, but if they had taken care of business in the regular season they are playing at Candlestick. I have no more sympathy for VI or Kalama than I do the Niners.

FOH
 
FOH: you have it all wrong! FDL has inside knowledge about next week's games and King's obviously beats Woodland in the state tournament. FDL, what stocks are going up tomorrow?
wink.r191677.gif
 
" I am also disappointed by the Kalama CPC matchup that puts two top 8 teams before Yakima." Lynden Christian was ranked #7 in the last poll I looked at. The rankings mean very little this time of the year. I am surprised at the respective records of Kalama (21-2) and CPC (16-7). It gives me pause picking CPC.
This post was edited on 2/26 9:20 AM by Warrant3
 
3 of CPC losses were to cali teams over christmas and you never know how your kids or the opposition is on those holiday trips, so you can probably throw those losses out. they are 13-2 their last 15 games and one of those is to kings who hasn't lost to a 1A team this year. sleep on them at your peril. kalama relies way too much on Bannister and Shagool and if they aren't playing well, there is no one else to step up. kalama could easily be out of the playoffs altogether the way they have been playing lately.
 
Thanks for pointing out those out of State losses by CPC. I posted in another thread that they were my "sleeper" team from here on out. In my experience, if you have two guys who can score, you can go a long ways in high school hoops. I don't know anything about Kalama, but if Bannister and Shagool are shooters, I'd give them a big shot.
 
I agree with you on the shooters point, but less inclined to paint them as shooters and more as all around solid slasher players who can also get hot. Bannister in particular is exceptional when he is on. strong enough to take it to the hole and finish, good ball handler in traffic, good jump shot with range, aggressive and attacking. he has presence on the court. Shagool is a similar type player, though not as good. I just think Kalama relies on them too much and when it's playoff ball and you start seeing really good defenders and officials allowing more physical play, strong kids like Bannister and Shagool don't get as many calls when they get fouled in traffic. they are fun to watch, though.
 
I totally agree rankings have very little meaning this time of year, but we have to talk about something this week. :)

Note, I am also disappointed about LC's absence as I was hoping for another Cedar Park vs. LC rematch. LC has some great fans, and I expect those same fans of Lynden and Lynden Christian girls will still, as is typical, have a great presence in Yakima. (Speaking of great fans, I met some very nice CC, LC and Vashon fans at the tri-district games.)

CPC easily has the worst record for a league winner (especially a 1A only league) as well as worst record of the upper ranked teams. Though I'd argue that records don't have as much meaning this time of year either. As was commented by TridistrictFan, some of those losses came in their holiday tourney versus teams ranked nationally right around Zillah above Okanogan. Some of those were humbling and really great learning experiences early in the season.

Bannister and Shagool are great players that can carry a team, especially if they are super hot. CPC will have their hands full. Tri-district's comment about not getting "as many calls when they get fouled in traffic" in the playoffs is totally right on and pretty consistent across a lot of the games I saw last week with multiple districts' officials. Based off my very limited observation and comments shared previously here by others, I'd say what is critical in post season is that 1) teams peak as they get to the dome and that 2) they play composed and possess an ability to overcome adversity. Momentum can just be a killer if they are not prepared. If/when these teams get to the final 8, an advantage goes to Toledo, King's, CPC, Okanogan, Seattle Academy and even CC along with Zillah who have some players with Sundome experience. They have dealt with some of the unique distractions that go along with that venue.
 
For my picks I decided to take a mathematical approach...I put together the records of all the regional qualifiers in their match-ups against the regional qualifiers.

17-7 Hoquiam 0-1 against qualifiers.... loss to Kalama at district
21-2 Kings 2-0 against qualifiers.... both wins ove S.A.

gonna take KIngs

17-3 Uprep 0-2 against qualifiers
16-7 Toledo 2-4 against qualifiers

gonna take Toledo

9-11 CC 0-4 against the region
16-6 Woodland 2-3 against the region

going with Woodland

18-6 Naches 0-6 against the region....all 6 losses of overall record to region bound teams...
18-5 Brewster 0-3 against the region... all three to okanogan

3 losses is better than 6 gonna take Brewster

18-3 Vashon 2-2 against the region
23-0 Okanogan 4-0 against the region

gotta go with Okanogan

20-5 Riverside 0-1 against the region
23-0 Zillah 6-0 against the region

Zillah

18-5 Lasalle 2-3 against the region...all three to Zillah
17-3 Sea Academy 2-2 against the region.... both to KIngs

2-2 is better than 2-3 going with Seattle Academy

21-2 Kalama 6-1 against the region
15-6 CPC 4-1 against the region

gonna take Kalama in a close one

also...nice job Scoreczar... 9 of his top ten are in regionals, and 12 of his top 16, and 13 of his top 17...

records against the region for scoreczar top three is 10-2
records against the region for ap poll top three is 12-0

I have personally watched 11 of the final 16 teams in action this year...
I saw alot of great athletes, great coaching, and awesome student body support

congratualtions to all 16 teams, This line up should make for a great tournament... Lastly for what its worth...of the 11 teams i have seen in person...

KIngs, Okanogan, and Zillah were the three that stood out for me...I will say they are my top three finishers. No disrespect to the teams I wasnt able to watch in person...just my opinion of the teams I did see...as far as the order of my final three??? I believe that will be heavily influenced by the the draw...Good luck to all...

p.s. the record of my top three against the rest of the region is 12 wins against 0 losses...
This post was edited on 2/27 10:39 AM by BALLEAST
 
1. CPC over Kalama
2. King's over Hoquiam
3. Cascade Christian over Woodland
4. Toledo over UPrep
5. Seattle Academy over LaSalle
6. Zillah over Riverside
7. Brewster over Naches
8. Okanogan over Vashon

If Cascade can get to Yakima my money is on them. They have a coach who has won 2 titles and is a huge part in how much this team has progressed since the beginning of the year to now. They beat a very good Lynden Christian team and another quality opponent in Vashon. They are very hot right now and all the other teams should watch out.
 
bigfballfan: CC is well coached and they play good together as a team, but they beat a Lynden Christian team that was decimated by injuries and sickness and that lost 4 of the last 7 they played. Included in the three wins was a victory over 0-22 Nooksack Valley, so they weren't exactly playin' their best ball when they had to drive down to Puyallup. Give them credit for beating Vashon, though they almost gave it away at the end and the Pirates played very poorly, but CC had somethign to do with that, so props all the same. Anything can happen and they are fortunate to be playing a team without a lot of experience that just lost a tough one against Toledo. Haven't seen woodland, but that's a tough league down there. Good luck!
 
Wish I could say I shared your feelings about the Coach at CC, but unfortunately I cannot. Yes, he's coached two State Champions. He also personally cost his team their game against L.C. in the Semi's two years ago by getting a well deserved Technical Foul late in a very close contest.
This post was edited on 2/28 8:06 AM by Warrant3
 
CPC over Kalama - CPC has improved all year, Kalama seems to be going backwards, CPC by 7
King's over Hoquiam - by 25+
Uprep over Toldeo - the Toledo run ends here, Uprep's length will be a factor -- my upset special, UP by 3
Seattle Academy over LaSalle - this will be much tighter than people think, SA by 5
Zillah over Riverside - by 25+
Brewster over Naches - by 15
Okanogan over Vashon - If Okanogan is as good as everyone thinks (and I believe they are), this game should not be close. Vashon is good, but not that good. OK by 15.


FOH



This post was edited on 2/28 10:14 AM by Fan_of_Hoop
 
FDL -- you obviously have not been around here long enough to know I never predict CCS games in football or basketball. Just the way I roll....

FOH
 
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